2023 Mission Hill Real Estate Sales Market Report

Photo by Matt Santapaula, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The real estate market in Mission Hill has started 2023 in a deep chill as property sales decline city-wide.  Mission Hill has recorded just 3 residential property transactions over the past 3 months.  That ties the lowest 3 month total in the past five years of MLS data.  The 30 day median sale price also failed to eclipse $1M for 3 months in a row for the first time since mid 2021.  Let’s take a closer look at the trends driving Mission Hill’s real estate market.

Total Real Estate Sales in Mission Hill

Since November, Mission Hill has recorded just one property sale in each of the last 3 months.  Given its small geographical area, total residential sales for Mission Hill real estate typically average around 3-4 per month.  Still, just 3 residential sales over a 3 month period is the lowest rolling 3 month total since late 2019. We can make some fair assumptions that that our misguided war on fossil fuels and bizarre fiscal policies that helped ignite runaway inflation and subsequent high interest rates could be a strong reason for this steep decline in sales volume.  Historically, inflation almost always creates uncertainty in the marketplace which slows down velocity of spending.  The question we need to start asking ourselves is how long this will last.

Will additional tax hurdles and penalties push more landlords into holding their properties for longer periods of time and wait out this high tax – high interest rate environment?

Mission Hill Median Sale Price & Price per Square Foot

Mission Hill’s median sale price was $750K in December.  That figure dropped considerably over the past 5 months as demand for real estate has dropped alongside rising interest rates.  Median sale prices in Mission Hill did spike to all-time highs in early 2022 as many buyers paid top dollar for properties in order to lock in a lower interest rate ahead of rate hikes enacted by the Federal Reserve.

Price per square foot did spike during the first half of 2022 before falling back down during the final quarter. Similar to median sale price, this looks to be a result of buyers paying above asking price for properties in order to close on a home before interest rates skyrocketed. Keep in mind – with such small data points due to low volume, the spikes and valleys can become quite pronounced.

Mission Hill Real Estate Market Predictions 2023

Based on a myriad of factors that seem to indicate low future sales supply coming available on Mission Hill, significant due diligence will need to be applied to each deal to ascertain the proper value of each property. Overall, look for the real estate market to continue to cool through the first half of 2023 in Mission Hill. January’s CPI came in high this month leading most to believe that more interest rate hikes are forthcoming. This will continue to affect real estate demand negatively over the next few months.

Nationally, we are going to need to focus on energy production and increasing supply so that inflation gets itself under control. Many property owners on Mission Hill are locked into very low rates and are reluctant to sell and reposition/trade their capital while interest rates are so high. Therefore it is safe to say that landlords will most likely only be selling if they have to sell, rather than because they wish to dispose of their property. This lack of supply could also keep prices artificially high especially as the incredibly low RTAR and RTVR suggest that rents may continue to climb.

Given the very short supply of real estate listings in Mission Hill, prices may not drop as much in this neighborhood as they do city-wide.  Property will always be in demand in this small neighborhood given its close proximity to downtown and local universities.  So while prices for Boston real estate are going to drop this year, they will likely decrease by a smaller margin in Mission Hill. Either way, it would be prudent that we jumpstart our economy with lower fuel prices and get our construction industry going again so we can bring more supply and more choices to the marketplace which both stimulates jobs and also provides more affordability. We will continue to monitor these data trends as they develop.