The apartment rental market in Somerville, MA is showing signs of returning to historical norms as we enter the final months of 2024. Just in the last four years, Somerville recorded a historical high in apartment vacancies and availability caused by the global pandemic, which was immediately followed by a two-year-long rental supply shortage that brought vacancies and availability to new record lows.
Now, in 2024, we’re starting to see the normal cyclical trends return to Somerville’s apartment rental market as supply numbers are more closely mirroring what we saw in 2019 before the pandemic. Here are the trends influencing Somerville’s apartment rental market in 2024.
Somerville Apartment Rental Supply Figures
The current real-time availability rate (RTAR) for Somerville apartments is 2.18%. That marks a +81.67% increase compared to a year ago when Somerville’s RTAR was fast approaching a historical low. Somerville’s apartment availability is closer to its pre-pandemic level of September 2019 (2.54%) which bodes well for prospective Somerville renters who’ve been stuck with minimal options over the past few years.
Looking at availability by micro-neighborhood in Somerville, you’ll see a tale of two tapes. While most areas are showing availability under 2%, the neighborhood of Tufts is at 8.23%. This is partly due to the leasing cycle at Tufts University, which trends towards students renting on a 6/1 leasing cycle compared to a 9/1 leasing cycle for most other neighborhoods. Look for apartment availability to remain high in this micro-neighborhood throughout the fall as students continue to look for Tufts off-campus housing for June.
| Neigborhood | RTAR |
|---|---|
| Somerville | 2.18% |
| Dali/Inman Squares | 1.19% |
| Davis Square | 1.56% |
| East Somerville | 0.86% |
| Maguon/Ball Squares | 0.00% |
| Porter Square | 0.15% |
| Spring Hill | 3.48% |
| Tufts | 8.23% |
| Union Square | 0.91% |
| West Somerville/Teele Square | 1.96% |
| Winter Hill | 1.89% |
The current real-time vacancy rate (RTVR) in Somerville is 1.07%. That figure is up +67.19% compared to a year ago and up +105.77% over two years. It’s been nearly 3 years since Somerville’s RTVR has been above the 1% level, marking a period of unprecedented supply shortage in this bustling suburb of Boston. While vacancies are still less than their pre-pandemic level in September 2019 (2.05%), it does show indication that market conditions may be returning to normal in Somerville.
According to our real-time Somerville apartment data, the average days on market for an apartment in Somerville is 19 days. That figure is down -16 days compared to a year ago, showing that demand for rental units remains strong in Somerville. As a result, apartment prices are still growing in Somerville, albeit at a much lower rate than in the past two years.
Somerville Average Rent Prices
The current average rent price in Somerville, MA is $3,663. Average rent is up +5.59% over the past year and up +12.12% over 2 years. Rent price growth has slowed significantly over the past 6 months, as the average rent in Somerville is up just +1.44% over that time span.
Looking over the average rent price by neighborhood in Somerville, you can see a wide spread between the most expensive and least expensive areas. The neighborhood of Tufts is the most expensive place to rent an apartment in Somerville at an average of $4,415. Dali/Inman Squares, Davis Square, and Union Square all come close to $4,000 while Spring Hill is the most affordable at a $2,704 average rent price.
| Neigborhood | Average Rent Price |
|---|---|
| Somerville | $3,677 |
| Dali/Inman Squares | $3,955 |
| Davis Square | $3,976 |
| East Somerville | $3,429 |
| Maguon/Ball Squares | $3,286 |
| Porter Square | $3,729 |
| Spring Hill | $2,723 |
| Tufts | $4,408 |
| Union Square | $3,874 |
| West Somerville/Teele Square | $4,146 |
| Winter Hill | $3,199 |
Somerville Apartment Rental Forecast 2024
Somerville is fast approaching the top of rental pricing as we go into the Fall and Winter. Overall rental prices across most Greater Boston neighborhoods is showing a flatting of pricing power and actually decreased for several months. This trend is likely to continue through the Fall as apartment demand subsides. Demand will continue to stay strong in the areas around Tufts University, including Somerville, which will keep rental prices from falling by any significant margin by the end of the year.
Looking ahead towards 2025, it is very possible that rent prices plateau and could even trend downwards. Most neighborhoods in Somerville will see landlords reduce their pricing as they get closer to Winter. Recently, landlords in Somerville have also been more willing to pay the brokers commission and this is something that they have not had to do since the pandemic. When Somerville landlords and property managers miss the 9/1 cycle, they know that incentives have to be provided to get their places rented. Property owners do not like to have vacant units in the off cycle of leasing so expect some price drops in certain neighborhoods of Somerville.
We will be making better determination of our Somerville 2025 forecast later this year. We have a big election to get through and there has been a lot of political instability and questionable jobs reporting that needs to be taken into account. The economic outlook is uncertain to say the least with a lot hanging on the upcoming election and the policies of the next administration. We will continue to monitor these trends as they develop on bostonpads.com.
Demetrios Salpoglou
Published September 17, 2024
Demetrios has pulled together the largest apartment leasing team in the Greater Boston Area and is responsible for procuring more apartment rentals than anyone in New England – with over 130k people finding their housing through his services. Demetrios is an avid real estate developer, peak performance trainer, educator, guest lecturer and motivational speaker.
