2022 Arlington Apartment Rental Market Report

Arlington, MA’s apartment rental market has proven to be one of the strongest in Greater Boston. It has historically been less affected by the highly cyclical demand swings that are typical in Boston’s core neighborhoods.  Sure enough, that trend prevailed during COVID.  When Boston’s real-time availability rate (RTAR) hit an astronomical 13.37% in March 2021, Arlington’s RTAR peaked at a much lower 8.19%. Arlington’s apartment availability has remained below Boston ever since.

Now in 2022, the average rent price for Arlington apartments has risen to a new all-time high.  The current average rent in Arlington ($2,437) is up +4.82% year-over-year and up +12.20% or $265 from pre-pandemic levels in July 2019.  Let’s take a closer look at what has driven this trend.

Arlington Apartment Supply Metrics 2022

Arlington has maintained extremely tight rental supply levels both before and after the pandemic.  The current RTAR in Arlington is 0.82%, which is the fourth lowest out of all Boston neighborhoods and second lowest among suburbs.  This has been typical of Arlington prior to COVID.  Arlington’s RTAR in early July 2019 was actually lower than it is currently in 2022.

If you look at the real-time vacancy rate (RTVR) for apartments in Arlington, the same trend emerges.  Arlington’s RTVR has remained below the 1% mark for the most part since late August of last year, and is currently at a historic low.  These two apartment supply metrics are the key factors in Arlington’s rising rent prices.

Arlington Average Rent Price 2022

The average rent price in Arlington, MA is $2,437, which ranks as the 5th highest average rent price among all Boston suburbs.  Arlington’s average rent price is still lower than that of Boston ($2,708) by $271.  Arlington’s average rent has remained level since it surpassed its previous all-time high in April of this year ($2,446).

With average rent prices at a record high and RTVR at an all-time low, it would normally be easy to predict that Arlington’s rent prices would be ready to blast off.  However, there are a lot more forces at play in 2022 to consider.

Arlington Rental Market Forecast 2022

With rampant inflation looming over the housing market and an economic recession on its way (or already here), it’s no safe bet to assume apartment prices will continue to rise in Arlington in the short term.  If conditions get worse with the economy, we could be looking at an even bleaker long term outlook.

However, with the inventory of Arlington apartments so low, we predict that prices will at least remain level throughout the rest of 2022 and possibly edge slightly higher.  If economic conditions worsen, Arlington could potentially attract renters who are priced out of Boston and its top suburbs.  This could also make prices flatten and/or edge slightly higher in Arlington in 2023.

Still, it will be hard to accommodate more demand in Arlington with the current supply of apartments so low.  If the city continues to grow in population, new housing developments will be needed in suburbs like Arlington to catch the spillover from the already saturated city center.  We will continue to monitor these trends as they develop.