2024 South End Apartment Rental Market Report

The apartment rental market in South End Boston might be leveling off in 2024 based on our most recent apartment data.  Total inventory for available South End apartments is up by +62.40% year-over-year while the real-time vacancy rate (RTVR) is up by 50%.  Despite some relief in inventory scarcity, rent prices are still on the rise.  South End’s current average rent price sits at $4,190.  Here are the trends affecting the apartment rental market in South End Boston.

Apartment Supply Shortages Could Ease In South End

The current real-time availability rate (RTAR) for apartments in South End is currently 4.19%.  That marks a +62.40% increase in available South End inventory compared to a year ago.  The current RTAR is actually +13.89% higher than its pre-pandemic level in mid-April 2019, indicating that conditions may be returning to more traditional patterns following a two year period of record low inventory.  This bodes well for renters in South End, as the increase in availability should cool off soaring rent prices and provide more options in 2024. That being said; for prices to come down on available apartments we would like to a number closer to 8% in this neighborhood.

The current real-time vacancy rate (RTVR) in South End is 0.69%, which marks a 50% increase in South End Boston vacancies compared to a year ago.  Low RTVR has been the norm in South End as it is one of Boston’s most sought after neighborhoods.  However, even by South End’s standards, vacancy rates have been exceptionally low in recent years, remaining below the 1% level since July 2021.  It will be interesting to see if RTVR returns back to the 1-2% level in September as it has done in most years prior to the pandemic.  Regardless of the significant increase in vacancies; we would like to see a number closer to 4 percent in this neighborhood before we feel rental prices could trend downward in a meaningful way on vacant units.

Despite the added inventory, the median days on market for an apartment rental in the South Endremains extremely low.  According to our South End rental data, the median days on market for an available apartment is only 7 days, among the lowest out of all Boston neighborhoods.  This shows that apartments are still in high demand in the South End despite record high rent prices.  Our real time data would indicate that price reductions on South End apartments for rent do not occur in a meaningful way until about 30 days.  That being said, it is easier to get some form of concessions such as allowing pets and/or providing either a reduced price and/or a free parking space sometimes before 30 days.

Record High Average Rent Prices in South End

South End’s current average rent price is $4,037, up +9.05% compared to a year ago and a whopping +22.97% compared to 2 years ago.  Rent price growth has certainly decelerated over the past 12 months on account of the apartment supply increasing, a trend that most hope will continue through 2024.  However, renters looking to lease in South End should be prepared to pay a premium.  South End’s average rent price for non-luxury apartments is the second highest out of all Boston neighborhoods behind the Back Bay.  To be clear; it is still quite common for numerous apartments in the South End to be rented even before they are marketed on the internet due to pent up demand.  There can often be renters that have missed out on other apartments in the South End and are often standing by for a phone call when a new one arrives in their price range.

South End Apartment Rental Market Forecast 2024

Looking at the rental supply levels in South End, we expect rent price growth to most likely cool offin 2024.  We likely will not see the double digit rent price growth that we’ve experienced over the past two years on account of both RTAR and RTVR increasing year-over-year.  South End’s RTAR peaked early in 2024 and has been trending downwards since early March.  That being said; we have heard of multiple properties being assessed higher and landlords paying more taxes and other inflated costs such as insurance which puts a strain on keeping quality apartments in top performing shape.

Aside from any major unexpected layoffs occurring in the next two months it is fair to project apartment availability to bottom out somewhere above 1% by late August as we approach the pivotal 9/1 leasing date.  That will be a welcome departure from the last two years, when RTAR bottomed out around the 0.25% - 0.40% range in August.  This will give renters a few more options through the summer months and hopefully keep rent prices from spiking in June and July.  If the vacancy rate returns to its historical norm of above 1% in September, rent prices should level off towards the end of the year.  We will continue to monitor these real time data trends as they develop here on BostonPads.com.